Models / gradient-boosted-ensemble

Overcut Threat

P(staying out longer beats the car ahead's stop), when in range.

gradient-boosted-ensembleanalytics.strategy

How it works

The staying-out side of the strategy coin: scoring whether track position is better defended by extending the stint.

Inputs

  • gap dynamics
  • tyre state differential
  • circuit pit loss

Output

drivers[].threat.overcutViability flag and pSuccess for the live duel. Absent on a lap with no duel — the model is conditional and prices nothing without a rival ahead inside the 15-lap window.
overcutProbabilityThe same served number, retained per lap on the analytics row and exposed via /insights (full-ML tier).
overcutRivalNumberCar number of the rival the probability is against. A P(beat) with no named opponent is uninterpretable, so the two are written together or not at all.
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